IvyArcIvyArc
8

Sir David

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 8 · OR 59

Leicester · Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Tumbled down the weights and back on the scoreboard at Beverley in August. Ran to similar level when good neck second of 14 to Shark Two One in handicap over C&D (good to firm) 15 days ago. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Doncaster 24/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 64 · 7f6y Goo 134 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 64 par24/046OR 645 @ Beverley 12/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 62 · 1m100y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 59 · 6f195y Goo 129 · below its mark29/05/2026 · OR 59 par29/056OR 596 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 56 · 6f195y Sft 131 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 57 · 7f96y Goo 127 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 57 par3/076OR 576 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 56 · 7f6y GF 134 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 54 · 7f75y Goo 135 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 54 par12/086OR 546 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 57 · 7f15y Gd 127 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Leicester 21/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 57 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 57 par21/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Leicester62nd2nd0
2026-08-25Musselburgh68th8th0
2026-08-12Beverley61st1st0
2026-08-01Doncaster63rd3rd0
2026-07-03Beverley69th9th0
2026-06-08Carlisle62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/048/0612/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength86%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/202613th33/10%20%+0.20
12/05/202612th22/10%8%+0.08
29/05/20268th11/271%13%-0.59
08/06/20262nd11/142%89%+0.47
03/07/20269th16/116%20%+0.04
01/08/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09
12/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
25/08/20268th12/137%22%-0.15
21/09/20262nd15/261%92%+0.32