IvyArcIvyArc
9

Snaafy

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 2 · OR 58

Leicester · Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful in an all-weather nursery last winter and proved as good as ever when second at Pontefract (1m) in July. Rather gone backwards since, however, and no surprise to see headgear reached for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 08/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 61 · 1m142y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/12/2025 · OR 61 par8/125OR 616 @ Wolverhampton 30/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 65 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark30/12/2025 · OR 65 par6 @ Wolverhampton 06/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 65 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark06/01/2026 · OR 65 par6/016OR 655 @ Lingfield 17/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 64 · 1m2f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 63 · 1m6y Goo 130 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 63 par17/076OR 63BHA64 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 64 · 1m98y Yie 134 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 63 · 7f213y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 63 par15/085OR 636 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 61 · 1m1f104y Std 132 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Beverley 22/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 61 · 1m100y Gd 131 · below its mark22/09/2026 · OR 61 par22/096OR 61projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Beverley68th8th0
2026-09-15Wolverhampton69th9th0
2026-08-15Doncaster55th4th+1
2026-07-31GalwayBHA649th10th−0
2026-07-17Pontefract62nd2nd0
2026-01-17Lingfield55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1217/0115/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 76/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/12/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
30/12/20253rd7/282%71%-0.10
06/01/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36
17/01/20265th13/266%0%-0.66
17/07/20262nd17/255%83%+0.28
31/07/20269th16/116%53%+0.37
15/08/20265th8/158%33%-0.25
15/09/20269th18/15%27%+0.22
22/09/20268th7/163%22%-0.41