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5

Soca Star

3yo Filly · 9-12 · Draw 3 · OR 65

Leicester · Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden after 14 starts and added another placed effort to her portfolio latest, finishing third of 10 in handicap at Thirsk (7f, good) 22 days ago. May need some help from the assessor.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength75%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chepstow 19/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 5f16y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2025 · OR 74 par19/085OR 742 @ Hamilton 03/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 73 · 6f6y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 73 par5 @ Wolverhampton 11/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 71 · 6f20y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 71 par11/105OR 715 @ Catterick 22/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 70 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 5f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 70 par25/055OR 705 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 68 · 5f3y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Wolverhampton 18/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 67 · 6f20y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 67 par18/085OR 674 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 65 · 7f6y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Thirsk 14/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 65 · 7f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 65 par14/095OR 65projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Thirsk53rd2nd+1
2026-08-26Catterick42nd0th+2
2026-08-18Wolverhampton55th4th+1
2026-06-29Pontefract55th4th+1
2026-05-25Redcar55th4th+1
2026-04-22Catterick52nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0822/0418/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +6.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/08/20252nd11/893%83%-0.09
03/09/20257th14/126%0%-0.26
11/10/20253rd12/137%50%+0.13
22/04/20262nd15/261%86%+0.25
25/05/20265th10/382%43%-0.40
29/06/20265th28/10%43%+0.43
18/08/20265th33/10%43%+0.43
26/08/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
14/09/20263rd14/126%78%+0.51