Havana Flash

2yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 5 · OR 74

Leicester · Alan & Sarah Laughterloft Legends Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼1

Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C2.7

Today: 4

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-19	Chester	4	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-03	Sandown	1	7th	3rd	+3	6.8
2026-06-27	Lingfield	4	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-05	Epsom Downs	2	8th	6th	+2	4.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 52/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength53%

Delivery trend -11.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/06/2026	8th	14/1	26%	42%	+0.15
27/06/2026	2nd	9/4	88%	80%	-0.08
03/07/2026	7th	17/2	55%	14%	-0.41
19/09/2026	3rd	10/3	82%	71%	-0.11