IvyArcIvyArc
4

Alfey Moon

2yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 9 · OR 65

Leicester · Mick & Linda New Inn Enderby Cheers Nursery · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

16%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has shown a fair bit in 6f/7f events, up with the sound pace throughout when fourth here (7f) 4 months ago. That form is good and he could have more to offer now handicapping having been gelded.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength85%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chepstow 21/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f16y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS21/0543 @ Ffos Las 04/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 7f80y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS4/0634 @ Leicester 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 7f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS13/064projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-13Leicester44th2nd+2
2026-06-04Ffos Las34th0th+3
2026-05-21Chepstow410th8th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/054/0613/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength97%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/202610th33/10%18%+0.18
04/06/20264th22/10%25%+0.25
13/06/20264th11/142%63%+0.20