5
Lady Of Hay
2yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 4 · OR 65
Leicester · Mick & Linda New Inn Enderby Cheers Nursery · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength68%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-08-05 | Yarmouth | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newbury | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 11-13 · tight 78/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 05/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 21/09/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |