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Caelan's Rose

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 9

Leicester · British EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 53y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising type who posted a fair third of 9 in novice at Salisbury (1m, good to soft, 20/1) on debut 33 days ago. Should progress and is one for the shortlist.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength12%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS3/093
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Salisbury33rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20263rd20/10%75%+0.75