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8

Almaty Star

6yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 6 · OR 78

Leicester · Everards Of Leicestershire Handicap · 5f

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made all at Yarmouth in April and best effort since when going close at Lingfield penultimate start. Never involved from worst of the draw at York 10 weeks ago and could fare better here back from a break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Lingfield 31/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 79 · 5f6y Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/12/2025 · OR 79 par31/123OR 794 @ Lingfield 12/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 5f6y Std 133 · beat its mark12/01/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 80 · 4f214y Std 134 · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 80 par20/024OR 804 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 79 · 5f21y Std 134 · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Yarmouth 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 5f42y Gd 131 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 75 par11/044OR 752 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 18th of 20 · OR 83 · 5f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Windsor 22/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 82 · 5f21y GF 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 82 par22/063OR 824 @ Lingfield 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 80 · 5f6y Std 137 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 16th of 17 · OR 79 · 5f Goo 165 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 79 par25/074OR 79projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25York416th16th0
2026-07-06Lingfield43rd3rd0
2026-06-22Windsor38th7th+1
2026-06-06Epsom Downs218th16th+2
2026-04-11Yarmouth41st1st0
2026-03-09Wolverhampton42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/129/0322/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 6-11 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength25%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/12/20254th4/179%25%-0.54
12/01/20262nd5/287%83%-0.04
20/02/20264th15/261%70%+0.09
09/03/20262nd3/184%83%-0.01
11/04/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
06/06/202618th40/10%11%+0.11
22/06/20268th28/10%13%+0.13
06/07/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01
25/07/202616th33/10%6%+0.06