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4

Brummell

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 1 · OR 84

Leicester · Everards Of Leicestershire Handicap · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

33%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back in top form and was a shade unlucky to lose his unbeaten record at Beverley 3 weeks ago, having to wait for a gap over 1f out and collared at the death. Back up 3 lb (last win off this mark) and can go well from stall 1.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Pontefract 27/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 81 · 5f3y Goo 139 · beat its mark27/07/2025 · OR 81 par27/074OR 813 @ Hamilton 22/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 84 · 5f7y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 84 par3 @ Hamilton 29/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 87 · 5f7y Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/09/2025 · OR 87 par29/093OR 874 @ Newcastle 01/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 87 · 5f Std 137 · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 87 par3 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 86 · 6f2y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 86 par2/053OR 864 @ Haydock 21/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 85 · 5f Sft 135 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 83 · 6f17y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 83 par13/063OR 834 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 81 · 5f143y GF 136 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 81 · 5f Goo 139 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 81 par16/094OR 81projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Beverley42nd2nd0
2026-08-15Doncaster43rd3rd0
2026-06-13Chester34th3rd+1
2026-05-21Haydock46th6th0
2026-05-02Doncaster33rd2nd+1
2025-11-01Newcastle47th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/071/1113/0616/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 47/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/07/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
22/08/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
29/09/202510th9/153%0%-0.53
01/11/20257th7/163%0%-0.63
02/05/20263rd16/116%60%+0.44
21/05/20266th5/174%0%-0.74
13/06/20264th16/116%67%+0.51
15/08/20263rd10/147%78%+0.30
16/09/20262nd11/486%91%+0.05