9
Desert Treasure
3yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 76
Leicester · Everards Of Leicestershire Handicap · 5f
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Beverley | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Newmarket | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | York | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Windsor | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 53/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength28%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 15/05/2026 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 16/09/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 45% | +0.03 |