IvyArcIvyArc
1

Germanic

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 2 · OR 87

Leicester · Everards Of Leicestershire Handicap · 5f

#10

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful at Newcastle in November and January but has returned to turf with 2 heavy defeats. First go in a 0-85 and has a bit to prove.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength81%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 8.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ascot 12/07/2025 · Pos 17th of 17 · OR 96 · 5f GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/07/2025 · OR 96 par12/072OR 962 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 21st of 27 · OR 96 · 6f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 96 par2 @ Haydock 27/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 93 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 93 par27/092OR 932 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 90 · 5f3y Hvy 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 90 par3 @ Newcastle 17/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 86 · 6f Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/11/2025 · OR 86 par17/113OR 862 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 92 · 6f Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Newcastle 24/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 92 · 5f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 92 par24/012OR 922 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 19th of 23 · OR 94 · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 94 par3 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 91 · 5f7y GS 141 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 91 par21/083OR 91projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Hamilton311th10th+1
2026-07-28Goodwood219th17th+2
2026-01-24Newcastle21st-1th+2
2026-01-16Newcastle29th7th+2
2025-11-17Newcastle31st0th+1
2025-10-25Doncaster211th9th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0725/1024/0121/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 55/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength65%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/202517th11/142%0%-0.42
02/08/202521st66/10%23%+0.23
27/09/20256th14/126%44%+0.18
25/10/202511th28/10%9%+0.09
17/11/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
16/01/20269th11/271%38%-0.33
24/01/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
28/07/202619th80/10%18%+0.18
21/08/202611th16/116%0%-0.16