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10

Straight Ahead

3yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 11 · OR 76

Leicester · Everards Of Leicestershire Handicap · 5f

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won back-to-back 5f nurseries at Newcastle to end 2025. Form mixed this year, going close at Thirsk and Beverley this summer but not so good in 2 runs 24 hours apart last month (wore first-time cheekpieces latest). More needed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 69 · 5f217y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 69 par4/101OR 695 @ Newcastle 22/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 69 · 5f Std 129 · beat its mark22/11/2025 · OR 69 par4 @ Newcastle 20/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 72 · 5f Std 122 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 72 par20/124OR 724 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 74 · 5f Goo 124 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 74 · 5f Gd 129 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 74 par12/064OR 745 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 75 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 75 par12/085OR 754 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 78 · 5f217y Goo 136 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 78 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 78 par16/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Beverley48th8th0
2026-09-15Redcar46th6th0
2026-08-12Beverley52nd3rd−1
2026-07-16Thirsk52nd3rd−1
2026-06-12York48th8th0
2026-05-31Thirsk44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1031/0512/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength31%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/202514th200/10%7%+0.07
22/11/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
20/12/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
31/05/20264th28/10%73%+0.73
12/06/20268th15/261%42%-0.19
16/07/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03
12/08/20262nd6/168%89%+0.20
15/09/20266th25/10%62%+0.62
16/09/20268th17/255%36%-0.19