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Tiva

4yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 10 · OR 85

Leicester · Everards Of Leicestershire Handicap · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

33%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 5f handicaps at Musselburgh and Doncaster (under this claimer) this summer and latest run at Ripon can be ignored (raced alone on far side from low draw). Wouldn't dismiss.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Hamilton 27/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 82 · 5f7y Goo 137 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 82 par27/054OR 824 @ Musselburgh 05/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 82 · 5f1y Gd 137 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Nottingham 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 81 · 5f8y Goo 138 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 81 par20/064OR 814 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 80 · 5f Goo 134 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 79 · 5f Goo 139 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 79 par1/084OR 794 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 5f1y Gd 137 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 82 · 5f Gd 142 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 82 par22/084OR 824 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 82 · 5f3y Gd 140 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Ripon 26/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 85 · 5f Gd 143 · below its mark26/09/2026 · OR 85 par26/094OR 85projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Ripon414th14th0
2026-09-13Doncaster41st1st0
2026-08-22Newmarket44th4th0
2026-08-07Musselburgh41st1st0
2026-08-01Thirsk43rd3rd0
2026-07-03Beverley46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/053/0722/0826/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 7-11 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20262nd18/581%80%-0.01
05/06/20265th13/266%33%-0.32
20/06/20264th5/174%40%-0.34
03/07/20266th11/271%29%-0.42
01/08/20263rd8/158%82%+0.24
07/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
22/08/20264th9/488%50%-0.38
13/09/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
26/09/202614th5/174%0%-0.74