11
Winchurch
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 5 · OR 75
Leicester · Everards Of Leicestershire Handicap · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Ripon | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Catterick | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 29/07/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 14/08/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 26/09/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |