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3

Parlando

7yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 4 · OR 86

Leicester · Paul & Margo Barley Mow Cosgrove Farewell Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 179y

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Returned to winning form with success in 1¼m handicap at Chester in July and back on track when good third of 8 in handicap (14/1) at Newbury (1¼m, good to firm) 18 days ago, faring best of those held up. Respected.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Kempton 02/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 90 · 1m3f219y Sta 133 · beat its mark02/03/2026 · OR 90 par2/033OR 902 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 90 · 1m2f42y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 89 · 1m2f5y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 89 par21/042OR 892 @ Epsom Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 89 · 1m2f17y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/04/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 87 · 1m2f1y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 87 par25/052OR 873 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 85 · 1m3f188y Goo 145 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 1m2f70y Goo 140 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 83 par25/074OR 833 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 86 · 1m2f GF 133 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ Newbury 18/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 86 · 1m2f Goo 141 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 86 par18/094OR 86projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Newbury43rd4th−1
2026-08-13Windsor34th4th0
2026-07-25Chester41st2nd−1
2026-06-13York38th8th0
2026-05-25Redcar28th7th+1
2026-04-28Epsom Downs26th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0328/0425/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/03/20263rd9/276%75%-0.01
03/04/20269th11/142%38%-0.04
21/04/20263rd11/142%71%+0.29
28/04/20266th5/174%0%-0.74
25/05/20268th40/10%22%+0.22
13/06/20268th10/147%13%-0.35
25/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
13/08/20264th17/255%57%+0.02
18/09/20263rd14/126%71%+0.45