IvyArcIvyArc
5

Percy's Daydream

4yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 2 · OR 79

Leicester · Paul & Margo Barley Mow Cosgrove Farewell Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 179y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

90%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice this season, including when making all at Beverley in June. Returned to form more recently, latest when creditable third of 12 in handicap at Redcar (1¼m, good to soft) 13 days ago. Likely player.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 79 · 1m4f13y Goo 135 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 79 par21/054OR 794 @ Leicester 08/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m2f Goo 129 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Beverley 23/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 77 · 1m1f207y Goo 135 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 77 par23/064OR 771 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 84 · 1m4f23y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Newmarket 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 87 · 1m2f GF 139 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 87 par17/073OR 873 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 84 · 1m2f5y Goo 140 · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Salisbury 13/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 82 · 1m4f5y Goo 140 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 82 par13/083OR 824 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 80 · 1m2f1y Goo 137 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Redcar 23/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 80 · 1m2f1y Gd 140 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 80 par23/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Redcar43rd4th−1
2026-09-09Redcar42nd3rd−1
2026-08-13Salisbury35th5th0
2026-07-26Pontefract34th4th0
2026-07-17Newmarket34th4th0
2026-07-04Beverley14th1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/054/0713/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20264th11/271%0%-0.71
08/06/202610th20/10%0%0.00
23/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
04/07/20264th25/10%25%+0.25
17/07/20264th20/10%40%+0.40
26/07/20264th3/184%25%-0.59
13/08/20265th25/10%33%+0.33
09/09/20262nd11/142%90%+0.48
23/09/20263rd4/179%82%+0.03