4
Ruby Wedding
3yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 5 · OR 86
Leicester · Paul & Margo Barley Mow Cosgrove Farewell Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 179y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 2 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Salisbury | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hamilton | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Sandown | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/09/2026 | 10th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |