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4yo Colt · 10-1 · Draw 6 · OR 89

Leicester · Paul & Margo Barley Mow Cosgrove Farewell Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 179y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bagged third win from 7 starts when taking 10-runner handicap at Southwell (1½m) 14 days ago. Just 3 lb higher on turf debut and holds strong claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength22%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 09/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m2f Std 1339/1055 @ Kempton 15/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m3f219y Sta 13015/1055 @ Chelmsford City 23/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 1m2f Std 13323/1054 @ Wolverhampton 04/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 80 · 1m4f51y Std 130 · beat its mark04/11/2025 · OR 80 par4/114OR 802 @ Southwell 28/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 84 · 1m4f14y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 84 par28/112OR 844 @ Kempton 18/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 84 · 1m2f219y Sta 137 · beat its mark18/02/2026 · OR 84 par18/024OR 843 @ Southwell 22/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 86 · 1m4f14y Std 138 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 86 par22/093OR 86projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Southwell31st1st0
2026-02-18Kempton42nd3rd−1
2025-11-28Southwell25th4th+1
2025-11-04Wolverhampton41st2nd−1
2025-10-23Chelmsford City51st3rd−2
2025-10-15Kempton53rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/104/1122/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 68/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20255th8/158%20%-0.38
15/10/20253rd18/15%75%+0.70
23/10/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
04/11/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
28/11/20255th4/179%33%-0.46
18/02/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
22/09/20261st17/255%100%+0.45