7
Connie's Rose
7yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 58
Leicester · Mario & Traci Plough Duxford Last Orders Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
55%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Ffos Las | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Chepstow | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Chepstow | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Chepstow | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Bath | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Chepstow | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |