Fenlander
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 6 · OR 70
Leicester · Mario & Traci Plough Duxford Last Orders Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
45%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Southwell | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Newmarket | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Leicester | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 18/5 | 81% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 26/09/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |