3
Rebel Path
7yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 5 · OR 66
Leicester · Mario & Traci Plough Duxford Last Orders Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Windsor | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Windsor | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Newmarket | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newbury | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 04/03/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 19/06/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 53% | -0.26 |
| 09/07/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 18% | -0.58 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 78% | +0.23 |
| 14/08/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/09/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 42% | -0.43 |