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5

Red Snapper

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 1 · OR 66

Leicester · Mario & Traci Plough Duxford Last Orders Handicap · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has been rejuvenated by the fitting of blinkers, scoring at Salisbury and Chepstow before a fine second back at the former track (no match for easy winner, beat the rest handily). Strong contender off the same mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Bath 20/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 60 · 5f10y Hvy 130 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 60 par20/106OR 604 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 64 · 5f160y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 64 par4 @ Ascot 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 65 · 6f Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 65 par8/054OR 655 @ Lingfield 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 65 · 4f217y Goo 130 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 65 par4 @ Goodwood 19/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 65 · 5f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 65 par19/064OR 655 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 64 · 6f20y Std 124 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Salisbury 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 62 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 62 par25/075OR 625 @ Chepstow 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 65 · 6f16y GF 129 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Salisbury 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 66 · 6f Sft 131 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 66 par11/095OR 66projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Salisbury52nd2nd0
2026-08-06Chepstow51st1st0
2026-07-25Salisbury51st1st0
2026-07-17Wolverhampton57th7th0
2026-06-19Goodwood47th6th+1
2026-05-18Lingfield52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1018/0525/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
17/04/20262nd12/137%92%+0.55
08/05/20266th11/142%72%+0.30
18/05/20262nd6/492%86%-0.06
19/06/20267th7/282%14%-0.67
17/07/20267th18/15%45%+0.40
25/07/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
06/08/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
11/09/20262nd5/174%91%+0.17