4
Hepburn
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 2
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Oumnaz Stakes · 1m 2f 205y
#1
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼4
Strength81%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.9
Today:
Class gap: +3.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 1 | 3rd | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Deauville | 1 | 7th | 3rd | +4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Marseille | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Marseille | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/02/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 56% | -0.34 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |