4
Gareya
3yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5
Lyon-Parilly · Prix De L'essor Maiden Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Clairefontaine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 3-3 · tight 77/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -11.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |