IvyArcIvyArc
5

Naturaliste

3yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 1

Lyon-Parilly · Prix De L'essor Maiden Stakes · 1m 1f 207y

#5

Rank

Odds

80/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ ParisLongchamp 05/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f96y Hvy 1285/04C5C5 @ Salon-De-Provence 25/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m1f207y GS 12425/05C5C5 @ Marseille-borely 12/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 1m99y GS 12412/06C5C0 @ Vichy 24/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 7f209y GS 13224/07C?C5 @ Deauville 06/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 1276/08C5C5 @ Salon-De-Provence 14/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 12014/09C5projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Salon-De-Provence?6th6th0
2026-08-06Deauville?7th7th0
2026-07-24Vichy?12th12th0
2026-06-12Marseille-borely?5th5th0
2026-05-25Salon-De-Provence?2nd2nd0
2026-04-05ParisLongchamp?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0425/0512/0624/076/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20265th33/10%43%+0.43
25/05/20262nd5/696%86%-0.10
12/06/20265th6/492%67%-0.25
24/07/202612th17/255%8%-0.47
06/08/20267th20/10%40%+0.40
14/09/20266th4/179%58%-0.21