Soda Zabeel

3yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 4

Lyon-Parilly · Prix De L'essor Maiden Stakes · 1m 1f 207y

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARK

Move▬

Strength8%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C4.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-31	Saint-Cloud	3	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-08-13	Deauville	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-06	Lyon-Parilly	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-05-22	Saint-Cloud	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-04-30	ParisLongchamp	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-04-11	Fontainebleau	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 63/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength96%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/10/2025	5th	12/1	37%	43%	+0.06
08/11/2025	8th	14/1	26%	42%	+0.15
11/04/2026	3rd	5/1	74%	78%	+0.04
30/04/2026	6th	17/2	55%	17%	-0.39
22/05/2026	5th	16/1	16%	60%	+0.44
06/06/2026	9th	17/2	55%	27%	-0.28
13/08/2026	2nd	25/1	0%	93%	+0.93
31/08/2026	3rd	9/4	88%	78%	-0.10