6
Dar Es Salaam
3yo Colt · 9-4 · Draw 4
Lyon-Parilly · La Fleche Handicap · 6f 156y
#10
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Chantilly | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Vichy | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chantilly | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-10 · tight 81/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/09/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 14/09/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |