5
Lover Song
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 7
Lyon-Parilly · La Fleche Handicap · 6f 156y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Fontainebleau | 2 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 10/02/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 13% | -0.48 |
| 06/03/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 45% | -0.15 |
| 17/03/2026 | 15th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 03/04/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 77% | +0.61 |
| 12/05/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 28/05/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 15/06/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |