7
Shativa
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 3
Lyon-Parilly · La Fleche Handicap · 6f 156y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Vichy | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Clairefontaine | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/02/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 09/03/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/04/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 06/07/2026 | 13th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 21/09/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.25 |