3
Stunning Hero
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 2
Lyon-Parilly · La Fleche Handicap · 6f 156y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Vichy | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength92%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 20/04/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 27% | -0.46 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 20/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 42% | +0.05 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |