8
Why Chope
7yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 6
Lyon-Parilly · La Fleche Handicap · 6f 156y
#9
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Strasbourg | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Chantilly | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chantilly | 3 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 69% | +0.17 |
| 26/01/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 02/02/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 12/03/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/03/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 23/04/2026 | 15th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 16/06/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |