3
Fraya Mas
3yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 4
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Palluat De Besset Maiden Stakes · 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/5
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
59%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fontainebleau | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Deauville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-18 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Deauville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Chantilly | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +13.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 28/11/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.38 |
| 18/12/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 08/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 06/03/2026 | 14th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |