8
Madame Magic
3yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 6
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Palluat De Besset Maiden Stakes · 7f 209y
#7
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength40%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Vittel | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Compiegne | 3 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-07-16 | Compiegne | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Nancy | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 49/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 08/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 43% | +0.38 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 16/07/2026 | 13th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 28/07/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |