5
Embiez
5yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 4
Lyon-Parilly · Prix De Pont-de-vivaux Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Compiegne | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 29/07/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 13/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 82% | -0.01 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |