1
Joh Spirit
7yo Mare · 9-10 · Draw 6
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Du Parc Borely Handicap · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 2 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength61%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 23% | -0.45 |
| 22/02/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 13/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 77% | +0.14 |
| 29/04/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 22% | -0.20 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 87% | +0.81 |
| 25/05/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 08/09/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |