3
Nova Hope
5yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 8
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Du Parc Borely Handicap · 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
62%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Vichy | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 6-8 · tight 80/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.44 |
| 21/03/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.20 |
| 05/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/07/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 47% | -0.09 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 36% | -0.27 |