5
Beachwalker
9yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 76
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 10/12/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 29/07/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |