7
Fabelman
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 74
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength44%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |