3
Sugar Lips
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 56
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/09/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |