8
Train And Trust
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 81
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 04/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 09/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 89% | +0.26 |