Wiley Willard
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 77
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |