4
Afraidofthebunny
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 93
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-09-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 4-13 · tight 54/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength45%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 01/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 16/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 17/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |