10
If I Were You
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 10 · OR 83
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-09-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 10-14 · tight 76/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength7%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 21/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |