Italian Symphony

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 91

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength22%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: -0.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-22	Mountaineer	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-08-29	Colonial Downs	?	4th	6th	−2	3.6
2026-07-16	Colonial Downs	?	6th	8th	−2	1.6
2026-05-31	Laurel Park	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-05-16	Charles Town	?	5th	4th	+1	5.6
2026-04-25	Charles Town	?	4th	3rd	+1	6.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 59/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength69%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/02/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	75%	+0.14
13/03/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	88%	+0.14
02/04/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	67%	+0.40
25/04/2026	4th	9/2	76%	57%	-0.19
16/05/2026	5th	11/2	71%	43%	-0.28
31/05/2026	4th	10/1	47%	63%	+0.15
16/07/2026	6th	7/1	63%	44%	-0.19
29/08/2026	4th	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
22/09/2026	1st	15/8	90%	100%	+0.10