13
Nate The Great
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 13 · OR 96
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 25/01/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 1/3 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |