Runningforjoy
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 86
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-08-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-12-22 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-11 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 31/10/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 11/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 25% | -0.71 |