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11

Tricky Tiger

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 11 · OR 86

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mahoning Valley 11/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 80 · 1m Slo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 80 par11/03C5OR 80C6 @ Mahoning Valley 09/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 80 · 6f 126 · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 80 parC7 @ Thistledown 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 87 · 6f 121 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 87 par21/04C7OR 87C7 @ Thistledown 11/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 94 · 1m 119 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 94 parC7 @ Thistledown 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 93 · 1m Fas 119 · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 93 par24/06C7OR 93C7 @ Thistledown 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 92 · 6f 119 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 92 parC8 @ Thistledown 10/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 99 · 6f Slo 119 · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 99 par10/08C8OR 99C8 @ Thistledown 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 91 · 6f 119 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 91 parC7 @ Mountaineer 17/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 86 · 1m Fas 124 · below its mark17/09/2026 · OR 86 par17/09C7OR 86projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Mountaineer?4th5th−1
2026-09-02Thistledown?6th8th−2
2026-08-10Thistledown?5th7th−2
2026-07-07Thistledown?3rd4th−1
2026-06-24Thistledown?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-11Thistledown?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0311/0510/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 6-14 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength28%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/03/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
09/04/20264th11/486%40%-0.46
21/04/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
11/05/20265th11/486%50%-0.36
24/06/20262nd6/168%80%+0.12
07/07/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
10/08/20265th11/271%33%-0.38
02/09/20266th12/137%17%-0.20
17/09/20264th12/137%40%+0.03