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5

Z Dancer

6yo Horse · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 85

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mountaineer 22/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m 123 · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 73 par22/09C6OR 73C5 @ Mountaineer 21/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 68 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 68 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 19/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 70 · 1m Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 70 par19/02C5OR 70C5 @ Mountaineer 22/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 66 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 66 parC5 @ Mountaineer 12/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 66 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 66 par12/05C5OR 66C5 @ Mountaineer 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 80 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 80 parC5 @ Mountaineer 26/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 86 · 7f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 86 par26/07C5OR 86C5 @ Mountaineer 17/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 89 · 7f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Mountaineer 07/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 88 · 1m 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 88 par7/09C5OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Mountaineer?2nd1st+1
2026-08-17Mountaineer?2nd1st+1
2026-07-26Mountaineer?3rd2nd+1
2026-07-13Mountaineer?3rd2nd+1
2026-05-12Mountaineer?5th4th+1
2026-04-22Mountaineer?4th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0922/0426/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength79%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/20256th8/158%17%-0.41
21/10/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
19/02/20266th16/116%17%+0.01
22/04/20264th8/158%0%-0.58
12/05/20265th20/10%20%+0.20
13/07/20263rd5/287%60%-0.27
26/07/20263rd9/488%67%-0.21
17/08/20262nd9/276%75%-0.01
07/09/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20