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11yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 83

Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mountaineer 26/07/2023 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 88 · 7f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/07/2023 · OR 88 par26/07C6OR 88C6 @ Mountaineer 22/08/2023 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 88 · 7f Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/08/2023 · OR 88 parC8 @ Mountaineer 12/09/2023 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 92 · 5f Gd 120 · below its mark12/09/2023 · OR 92 par12/09C8OR 92C8 @ Mountaineer 23/06/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 84 · 5f Fm 120 · beat its mark23/06/2024 · OR 84 parC8 @ Mountaineer 23/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 85 · 5f Fm 120 · beat its mark23/06/2025 · OR 85 par23/06C8OR 85C5 @ Mountaineer 10/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 83 · 4f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2025 · OR 83 parC7 @ Mountaineer 15/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 89 · 5f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/09/2025 · OR 89 par15/09C7OR 89C7 @ Mountaineer 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 88 · 5f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 88 parC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 19/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 79 · 5f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 79 par19/08C7OR 79projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Presque Isle Downs?5th4th+1
2026-06-02Mountaineer?1st0th+1
2025-09-15Mountaineer?9th8th+1
2025-08-10Mountaineer?1st-2th+3
2025-06-23Mountaineer?1st1st0
2024-06-23Mountaineer?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0723/0615/0919/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength66%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20232nd10/1195%88%-0.08
22/08/20235th3/184%33%-0.51
12/09/20236th3/184%0%-0.84
23/06/20241st7/491%100%+0.09
23/06/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
10/08/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
15/09/20259th13/266%0%-0.66
02/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
19/08/20265th14/126%20%-0.06