Small Field
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 84
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
53%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-08-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 17/06/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |